Friday, December 10, 2010

Do we have representative democracy in Canada?

In a true representative democracy, all Canadians should have equal access to power with every vote carrying equal weight. Unfortunately we appear very far from that situation. My analysis below is based on the 2008 General Election as that is the most recent full data set. I did not use the recent by-elections as the turnout for them was considerably lower than the general election. Most of the data is presented in pairs purple/blue, where the purple is generally getter a better deal than the blue.
  • Richard Nadeau (Quebec-Bloc Québécois) won the riding of Gatineau with only 29.2% of the votes (15189 out of 52098).
  • Kevin Sorenson (Alberta-Conservative) won the riding of Crowfoot with 82.0% of the votes (39342 out of 47958).
  • Leona Aglukkaq (Nunavut-Conservative) won the riding of Nunavut with the least votes; only 2815 votes, which represents 34.9% of the popular vote in the riding.
  • Jason Kenney (Alberta-Conservative) won the riding of Calgary Southeast with the most votes; 41425 votes, which represents 73.9% of the popular vote in the riding.

  • The riding with the largest population is Brampton West in the province of Ontario with 170422 people.
  • The riding with the smallest population is Labrador in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador with only 26364 people. 
  • That is a ratio of  6.5:1.
  • The riding with the largest number of registered electors is Oak Ridges--Markham in the province of Ontario with 136755 electors.
  • The riding with the smallest number of registered electors is Nunavut in the territory of Nunavut with only 17089 electors. 
  • That is a ratio of  8.0:1.
  • The riding with the smallest percentage of registered electors is York West in the province of Ontario with 57.4% electors.
  • The riding with the largest percentage of registered electors is Québec in the province of Quebec with 85.4% electors.
  • The riding of Labrador in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador had the fewest valid ballots cast, with 7721 ballots. It was won by Todd Russell of the Liberal Party, who received 5426 votes, or 70.3% of the popular vote in the riding.
  • The riding of Oak Ridges--Markham in the province of Ontario had the most valid ballots cast, with 75821 ballots. It was won by Paul Calandra of the Conservative Party, who received 32028 votes, or 42.2% of the popular vote in the riding.
  • The riding of Fort McMurray--Athabasca in the province of Alberta had the smallest turnout, with only 35.8% of the electorate voting. It was won by Brian Jean of the Conservative Party, who received 17160 votes, or 67.1% of the popular vote in the riding.
  • The riding of Verchères--Les Patriotes in the province of Quebec had the largest turnout, with 71.9% of the electorate voting. It was won by Luc Malo of the Bloc Québécois Party, who received 27602 votes, or 50.8% of the popular vote in the riding.
  • 48.7% of the electors had their candidate elected to office, which means that 51.3% of the electors are not being represented in Parliament. That extrapolates to 78.5% of the population is not represented in our Parliament.

Looking at the provinces, I have graphed the results below. I have organized the provinces from West to East so I could overlay them (roughly) on the map. It is interesting to see some of the trends. The Territories are on the far right, also in a West to East order. Some things I noticed are:

  • As you travel from West to east the percentage of electors (electors/population) generally increases. The low ones here are British Columbia and Ontario.
  • A similar trend is also seen with the voter turnout, as you travel east the turnout increases. There are two significant exceptions to this trend: British Columbia and Newfoundland/Labrador.
  • The final trend shows the opposite. This is the percentage of population within the province that is represented by the candidate they choose on the ballot. It starts high in Alberta and declines throughout Central Canada with a very slight increase in the Maritime provinces. Again there are two significant exceptions to this trend: British Columbia and Newfoundland/Labrador.

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  1. Scott LuftDecember 11, 2010 at 12:41 PM

    This is interesting stuff. I've looked at the same things inclusive of 2004 and 2006 election data.

    There's an interesting entry of voter turnout on wikipedia, that includes this:
    PB + D > C

    Here, P is the probability that an individual's vote will affect the outcome of an election, and B is the perceived benefit that would be received if that person's favored political party or candidate were elected. D originally stood for democracy or civic duty, but today represents any social or personal gratification an individual gets from voting. C is the time, effort, and financial cost involved in voting. Since P is virtually zero in most elections, PB is also near zero, and D is thus the most important element in motivating people to vote. For a person to vote, these factors must outweigh C.

    Newfoundland generally has a low voter turnout, but especially in 2008 as the popular Premier told people not to vote Conservative. Similarly, Alberta has a low turnout because everybody knows what the outcome will be in most ridings.
    I think the data supports people don't vote when they don't feel their vote will make a difference.

    This is pertinent to any argument on any element of proportional representation we might wish to introduce - although the appetite seems low for that 6 years into minority governments, and Germany is seeing similar reduction in voter turnout - with a smattering of PR in their system. Worse, they see increasing shares of the vote on both the extreme right and the extreme left.

    PR in itself may not be the answer - but we need a way to convince people their vote is important and meaningful, even when it won't directly impact the MP elected in their ridings.

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