Rise or fall in gun crime in Canada?

The Long Gun Registry debate continues in this country, with an important vote in the House of Commons only a week away. I have my own doubts about the effectiveness of the registry, and still question the less than $4 million/year figure that was identified on page 57 of the RCMP report to operate it. Unfortunately the arguments against it seem to be often weak, or even totally incorrect. Many people argue that gun crime has increased since the registry has been implemented. They often base that allegation on homicides in the country, but fail to mention that increased rate is for handguns and not long guns. The registry in question is about long guns, and that rate has actually decrased since it was implemented in 2001 and became mandatory on January 1, 2003.

I looked at the data published by Statistics Canada on the homicides for the years 1998-2008 (2009 data should be published in a couple of months), as broken down by method. I looked at the average for the years 1998-2002 (before the registry became mandatory), and 2003-2008 (after). Murder by handgun did increase from and annual average of 94.8 to 118.17 but long guns did the exact opposite and decreased from 50.6 to 38.5.

Overall firearm related homicides over the past decade have increased slightly, there has been an increase in handgun related homicides and a decrease in long gun related homicides. This may not spell success for the Long Gun Registry, but it certainly does not indicate any failure.